Megacities

   The Washington Post, April 22, 1996, p. A20.


   Megacities, Megachallenges [Editorial]

   Twenty years ago, about 1.5 billion people lived in cities.
   Today, 2.6 billion do. Thirty years from now, more than
   five billion of the world's eight billion people likely
   will be city dwellers. This rapid urbanization, especially
   in the developing world, is an important subset of the
   rapid population growth, which is likely to continue into
   the middle of the next century at least. Sometime around
   the end of this century, more than half of the world's
   population will live in cities for the first time. This
   poses formidable challenges in health care and the
   environrnent, in both the developed and developing world.

   The United Nations will hold a conference on urbanization
   this June in Turkey (urban population today: 43 million;
   predicted urban population in 2025: 79 million). The world
   may be suffering from U.N.-conference fatigue. But a report
   published this week, "World Resources 1996-97: The Urban
   Environment," leaves no doubt as to the importance of
   dealing with these issues now.

   The report points out that urbanization is not all bad; one
   reason so many people move to cities, after all, is to earn
   a better living. Literacy, opportunities for women, health
   indicators and living standards all tend to be higher in
   cities, on average, than in rural areas.

   But the phrase "on average" is key. The urban poor in many
   developing countries live in squalor unlike anything they
   left behind, and many of their health problems -- often
   including violence -- are also new. In Caracas, more than
   half the total housing stock is squatter housing. In
   Bangkok, the regional economy is 2.1 percent smaller than
   it otherwise would be because of time lost in traffic jams.
   The megacities of the future pose huge problems for waste
   management, water use and climate change. In 1950, there
   were only two megacities of eight million or more, London
   and New York. By 2015, there will be 33, 27 in the
   developing world.

   One encouraging note, given its past inattention to
   environmental questions, is the World Bank's decision this
   year to join with U.N. agencies and the nonprofit World
   Resources Institute to publish their biennial report on the
   global environment. The bank's commitment to help local
   communities solve their environmental problems will promote
   what is called sustainable development -- economic growth,
   that is, which does not come at the expense of future
   generations. Leaders and communities everywhere must make
   a similar commitment, so that the stresses of rapid
   urbanization don't overwhelm the benefits of city living.

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