RE: "We're Changing the World"

Frank, Bob, Anthony, all,

Of course it's a very honorable aspiration to help the Iraqi people
build and organize their society in a more democratic direction,
but guys, let's be realistic: you can not force democracy onto a
nation, not in a time frame of couple of months and certainly not
at the barrel of a gun. You don't have to be a trained historian
to understand that processes of democratization take decades at
least, and maybe centuries, to get formalized and substantialized.
And most important, if you look at the oldest western democracies,
you will notice these processes were always started from within:
they were internally fueled national struggles, initiated by domestic
figures and movements and shaped by the various tradional and
cultural backgrounds: that's why there are so many different styles,
forms and structures of democracy in f.i. England, France, Italy,
Germany, Holland, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal, the U.S. etc.

As i've said before, i don't believe that the Iraqi society is ready
for a democratic type of government, because it lacks the basic
ingredients and essential conditions to make it work. Let's start
at the bottom, democracy begins at school: but the Iraqi Ba'ath
schooling system was a very authoritarian structure, without any
curriculum of political pluralism or fostering of debating skills.
Furthermore Iraq never had a flourishing club or social life or the
freedom of assembly. There never were independent trade unions,
nor a free press, nor a tradition of independent thinkers, let alone
free artistic circles or milieus. Looking at the cultural texture of
Iraq, you'll see a society with deeply ingrained patterns of ethnic,
religious and gender segregation, of which its most significant
feature is tribalism. Yet as we all ought to know, tribalism, and
the patriarchal family structure that support it, is, because of its
rigid hierarchies and clientalism, fundamently anti-thetical to
democratic decision-making processes. Thus, all in all, i'm not
so optimistic or enthousiastic about the prospects of a rapid and
smooth transition to democracy in Iraq. Maybe it would have
been much wiser to have waited some more years, i mean, you
know, Saddam hasn't eternal life, and after his death an internal
power struggle in Iraqi society could well have beeen shifting
towards a more democratic style-of-state. There were (are) some
modern leaning and technocratic tendencies within the Ba'ath
party and btw. i've personally never believed that Saddam's sons
would make any chance of his succession: they were a couple of
spoiled lunatics.

With regard to the recent behavior Libya, these things must not
be exaggerated to much. Libya, in a certain sense, is coming out
of the cold (war). With the current (and widening) rift between
the U.S. and Europe, Libya sees new opportunities for alliances
with Europe. Already for years Italy, France and Germany are
helping Libya to exploit its vast mineral resources. With aid of
Italy Libya is at the moment building the largest LNG terminal
of the Mediterranean for exports to Europe. Libya also has plans
to expand her tourist industrie considerably, aimed at the growing
European market. (btw. Libya has lot of beautiful ancient sites)
You know, Libya doesn't need a program of WMD so much at
the moment, i think. [And let's be honest, if you want to make a
nuke nowadays, that's not so difficult anymore, as say 30 years
ago. All you need today is some base fuel and an ultra-centrifuge,
and you have your dirty little nuke within months.] No, what
Libya needs at the moment is European friends and an entry to
her markets. That's why Muammar Kadaffi is travelling through
Europe at the moment; tomorrow he is visiting Belgium and i've
heard he brought his own Bedouin tent to sleep in and gallons of
his favorite drink: camel-milk.

I also want to say something about the Japanese democracy, but
it's late already. One thing though, i think that Japan's government
after WOII is better characterized in terms of "stabilility" then in
terms of a vivid "democracy". I can't remember one instance of a
real political crisis, falling cabinets or bye-elections in Japan.

yours,
Jan




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